Posted on Jul 8, 2022, 8:10 AM
The French advertising market isn’t about to change pace, but the brakes look sharp. During the third quarter, growth in this sector should peak at 3.4% within one year, according to calculations by France Pub Research Institute, which is playing for the first time the forecast game on a quarterly scale called “FAST”. Compared to 14% a year ago compared to the same period in 2020.
confirms Xavier Guillon, managing director of France Pub, which monitors behavior in blobs depending on sectors of activity.
“The bipolar market, no one has heard of. On the other hand, sectors such as food or automobiles are particularly affected by the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation that has led to a sharp reduction in their advertising expenditures, as Xavier Guillon points out. On the other hand, the capital goods or tourism sectors operate On increasing it because their clients are CSP+ who are not worried about employment and who have hoarded a lot over the past two years. They prefer to spend their savings, not knowing where to put it between a bear stock market and traditional inflation-proof investments.”
External advertising extends to restart
In detail, the media should drop between the beginning of July and the end of September, France Pub predicts. In one year, the decrease should be -3% for the press and -1% for television. Xavier Guillon notes that “TV suffers from a fundamentally unfavorable effect because the recovery last year has been too strong for this medium, while the press is seeing the downward trend in ad revenue resuming.” Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019, the small screen is up 11% when press is down 14%.
For its part, radio will remain flat (+1.5%) over one year during the third quarter, while outdoor advertising – falling lower than other media when the health crisis reached its peak and its recovery later – will continue to catch up and will rise, over the course of a year, By 7% between the beginning of July and the end of September, according to France Pub. Compared to July-September in 2019, the media ratio is +2%. As for the digital number, it slowed sharply but maintained its upward trend and will achieve 6% growth during the third quarter.
Advertisers are wary.
Over the current year as a whole, signs remain green for the French market, according to GroupM (WPP), which expects growth of more than 11% compared to 2021, which will raise it to a historically high level. 24.5 billion euros *.
“At the moment, advertisers are being more cautious than reducing their marketing expenses. They are expecting a return to wealth that is better from the general economic context,” says Olivier Beconet, GroupM’s Director of Media Investments in France.
According to the group, the increase in the French advertising market was about 5%, in one year, during the second quarter. “It fits a bit with TV whose underlying effects are not very favorable to the Euro [championnat d’Europe de football, NDLR] which took place in June and July 2021, but the market will rebound during the last period between the back-to-school programs and the World Cup that will stimulate the public”, notes Olivier Baconet. This would allow the small screen to sign a record year, at around 3.8 billion euros.
* GroupM has recently scaled up what it calls “digital ad spend” quite dramatically. In 2021, the French advertising market was revalued from 15.5 billion to 22.05 billion euros.