Fidelity Macro Analyst Sets Long-Term Bitcoin Predictions with New Trading Patterns

Fidelity’s Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer is updating his long-term forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) as a crypto asset with a market cap struggling near the $30,000 mark.

in a long time routeTimmer refers to the previously popular PlanB (S2F) model of quantitative analysts, which attempted to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply shocks caused by halving BTC.

Timmer offers a S2F-inspired buying model, along with two other models that track internet and mobile usage rates.

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According to Timmer’s modified supply model, Bitcoin could reach around $63,778 by 2025, about a year after the next BTC halving.

“The close-up image below shows that this more modest supply model was (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F forecast for this half-cycle.”

Source: Gorin Timer / Twitter

Timmer says that based on mobile adoption, Bitcoin could explode in value and trade at $144,753 by 2025. But if Bitcoin follows the internet adoption rate, Timmer’s model indicates that BTC has peaked and could trade at 47, $702 in three years.

“Assuming the mobile curve is a more viable analog, its curve indicates a strong growth network for Bitcoin in the coming years, but the more convergent internet curve raises the possibility that the Bitcoin growth curve is more mature than the models assumed…

I remain bullish on Bitcoin as an ambitious store of value in a world of ongoing financial repression, but the exercise above is a good reminder that we should always reconsider our assumptions, especially when price action and expectations divergence.

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Featured Image: Shutterstock / Larich

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